CBN Survey Forecasts Business Confidence to Rise to 36.1 Points by Feb 2027
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Business Expectation Survey shows the Business Confidence Index rose to 14.8 points in August 2026, up from 5.7 points in July, and projects it will reach 36.1 points by February 2027, with intermediate readings of 23.6 points in September and 30.1 points in November 2026. The uptick reflects stronger demand (25.9%), economic diversification (18.3%) and the monetary policy stance (14.2%) as cited by respondents.
Confidence gains cut across all major sectors: industry rose from 11.5 to 17.1 points, services from 3.6 to 13.3, and agriculture from 3.4 to 13.9. At the subsector level, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply posted the highest current-operation optimism at 50.0 points, while Construction showed the strongest expansion outlook at 73.9 points. However, businesses cited high or multiple taxation (67.8), insecurity (66.9) and high interest rates (63.5) as top constraints, followed by high bank charges (61.1) and competition (59.5).
The survey also notes an expected naira appreciation, with the exchange-rate outlook index rising from 8.5 in August to 15.1 in September, 23.5 in three months and 31.8 in six months. Borrowing-rate indices remain in the 18-19 range, signalling only modest financing-cost relief, and average capacity utilisation held steady at 55.8% in August. Complementary reports from NESG, Stanbic IBTC and Nairametrics show broader economic improvement, with Nigeria’s Q2 2026 GDP growing 4.43% year-on-up from 4.23% a year earlier.
With taxes and insecurity still major constraints, will policymakers focus on easing those to sustain the confidence rebound?