Cocoa prices surge to $6,366/MT as West Africa floods threaten harvest amid El Niño fears
Cocoa futures have rallied to $6,366/MT as of July 10th 2026, hitting 24-week highs after falling from $11,000/MT in mid-2024 to $3,100-$3,300/MT in March/April 2026. September 2026 contracts on ICE New York (CCU26) show a nearly 40% gain in four weeks, with tight physical supplies and weather risks driving momentum.
West African heavy rains are flooding plantations in Ivory Coast and Ghana, disrupting logistics and raising black pod/brown rot disease alerts. Field surveys suggest Ivorian crop yields could drop to 1.7-1.8 million MT from the 2.2 million MT forecast. Nigeria's cocoa harvest faces similar pressure—industry estimates show a potential 11% decline from 344,344 to 305,000 metric tons for 2025/26, with the current deluge threatening even this reduced outlook.
The bullish surge reflects deeper structural issues: ageing tree stocks, inadequate replanting investments, and a brutally deficient global stock-to-use ratio from the 2024 season. With El Niño of "Super" strength likely according to Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA forecasts, traders anticipate heat and arid conditions during later crop development stages.
Physical inventories at ICE-approved warehouses are at their highest in two years, but insufficient to offset systemic problems. Market pricing suggests $5,000-$7,000/MT range for Q3 2026 pending July/August field assessments.
For Nigerian cocoa farmers and agribusiness stakeholders: consider adapting storage and transportation strategies ahead of peak harvest season, as excessive moisture compounds disease risks and yield losses.