Dangote Refinery IPO priced at N525 as analysts value it N77.7tn-N82.6tn
Two Nigerian investment firms value Dangote Refinery between N77.7 trillion and N82.62 trillion, above its indicative N65.22 trillion IPO market cap. CardinalStone and Chapel Hill Denham say the N525 share price undervalues the refinery based on future earnings and expansion plans.
The IPO opens for subscription September 14 and closes October 13, with trading expected on NGX in late November. Retail investors can participate with as little as N5,250 (10 shares). The N2.15 trillion raised will fund utilities (N841bn), process units (N686.5bn), and construction (N583.5bn) for expanding capacity from 700,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day.
Dangote reported H1 2026 revenue of $13.91 billion and profit of $1.82 billion, reversing a 2025 full-year loss. However, the higher valuations depend on successful expansion and sustained earnings growth—if these fail, shares could trade below N525.
Given the N525 offer price is below analyst valuations but execution risks remain, will you invest based on confidence in Dangote's expansion plans, or wait to see post-listing performance before deciding?