FEWS NET warns 16.99 million Nigerians may need urgent food aid by January 2027
FEWS NET projects that between 16.0 million and 16.99 million Nigerians will require urgent food assistance by January 2027, a decline from the 20.0-20.99 million estimated for July 2026 but still above the country's five-year average. The figure represents 5%-10% of Nigeria's population and ranks the nation fourth globally for projected food-aid needs, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The outlook attributes the persistent risk to ongoing conflict in northern Nigeria, which disrupts farming, limits market access and keeps staple prices high despite the December harvest. Inaccessible areas and LGAs most affected by movement restrictions are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, forcing conflict-affected households to rely on markets for food.
While the main harvest should ease pressure, FEWS NET warns that production and supply disruptions will keep prices elevated, and food insecurity will remain severe in several regions. Without sustained humanitarian support and efforts to restore agricultural livelihoods, millions could slip deeper into crisis.
Will improved security, market interventions and targeted aid be enough to keep hunger below catastrophic levels, or will more Nigerians need emergency assistance in the coming months?