FG oil revenue direct remittance starts March 2, 2026
FG begins direct remittance of oil revenues March 2, 2026. Nigeria may struggle to fully capitalize on rising oil prices triggered by escalating Middle East tensions, as global financial volatility threatens to erode foreign exchange gains. This is according to a policy brief by the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). The conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has heightened fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which nearly 20 percent of global crude supply passes daily. Nigeria's oil-dependent economy, where crude accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and half of government revenue, faces profound implications. While higher oil prices could boost export receipts and reserves, production remains constrained at 1.4-1.6 million barrels per day due to theft, vandalism, and underinvestment. Without addressing these bottlenecks, Nigeria risks missing the full windfall. Geopolitical shocks often push crude prices up $5-15 per barrel within days. Yet, Nigeria's shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment could offset FX gains. Domestic welfare risks loom large as deregulated fuel pricing translates higher crude costs into rising petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel prices, intensifying inflation. CPPE urges fiscal prudence, recommending saving part of oil windfall, accelerating refining capacity, and deploying targeted social protection. Nigeria's heavy oil reliance amplifies exposure, underscoring urgency of economic diversification.