FG's ₦32trn borrowing plan exposes revenue-responsibility mismatch—experts debate structural fix
Investment experts on the Drinks and Mics podcast argue Nigeria's federal borrowing binge stems from a structural flaw: the FG doesn't earn enough revenue to meet its constitutional obligations. Zrosk CIO Samson Esemuede says the deficits are "by design"—the FG's revenue claim doesn't match its responsibility load. The fix? Either increase the FG's share of national revenue or push obligations down to states.
This context frames President Tinubu's request for Senate approval of $20.52bn plus €1.05bn (≈₦32trn) in external borrowing for 2026-2027. Funds target power, transport, healthcare, agriculture, education, water, security and jobs across all 36 states. But the proposal lacks lender details or project-by-project breakdown—raising monitoring questions given existing debt.
Awabah CEO Tunji Andrews calls the amount "a drop in the ocean" for Nigeria's structural problems, arguing the scale should match ambition to attract serious investment. BGL Plc CIO Arnold Dublin-Green counters that highlighting urgent sectors is standard for any major financing pitch.
The core issue remains unresolved: Nigeria's revenue-sharing formula gives the FG responsibility without matching resources. Until that alignment shifts, every borrowing plan—no matter how well-intentioned—treats symptoms, not the disease.
As the Senate reviews this request, the real question isn't whether to borrow but whether Nigeria will finally restructure who pays for what across the federation.