IMF projects Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 33.1% in 2027 despite 2025 decline
The IMF projects Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 33.1% in 2027, up from 32.3% expected in 2026, according to its Fiscal Monitor Report launched April 14, 2026 at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC. This follows a reported 35.3% debt-to-GDP ratio for Nigeria in 2025, indicating a projected dip then rise over the two-year period.
The projection comes amid President Bola Tinubu's request for National Assembly approval of $6 billion in external loans. The Debt Management Office reported Nigeria's total public debt reached N159.27 trillion at the end of Q4 2025—up N5.98 trillion from Q3 2025 and N14.6 trillion higher than Q4 2024 levels. Globally, government debt rose to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025 and is on track to reach 100% by 2029, levels last seen after World War II.
The IMF warned of deteriorating fiscal outlooks despite global economic resilience, citing Middle East conflict risks that could increase food/fuel prices and defence spending. It also flagged that a 20% drop in US AI-related asset values could raise global debt-at-risk by 2.4 percentage points. IMF fiscal affairs director Rodrigo Valdés emphasized needing credible medium-term fiscal frameworks and cautioned against broad-based energy subsidies that distort price signals and strain finances.
With Nigeria's debt trajectory showing a slight 2026 improvement before 2027 increase, what specific fiscal adjustments should the government prioritize now to prevent heavier burdens on public services and future tax payers?