Mbappe leads 2026 Ballon d’Or race with 26% odds as World Cup enters quarter-finals
France captain Kylian Mbappe holds the strongest position for the 2026 Ballon d’Or award according to Polymarket odds, with a 26% chance following his World Cup performances. The 27-year-old leads the tournament scoring charts with seven goals and two assists, helping Les Bleus reach the quarter-finals.
England captain Harry Kane sits second with 23% odds after scoring six times in the competition. Both Lionel Messi (Argentina) and France teammate Ousmane Dembele follow with 11% each—a remarkable shift for Messi who had less than 1% chance before the tournament began.
For football fans following the World Cup, these odds reflect current form rather than guaranteed outcomes. The quarter-finals begin this week with several favorites still competing. Nigeria's absence from the tournament means local supporters are watching other teams, with Morocco's historic run drawing congratulations from Nigerian leaders.
Will Mbappe's goal-scoring continue to impress Ballon d’Or voters, or will another player's influence on their team's success change these odds before the award is decided later this year?