Middle East oil shipments at 98% prewar, Brent above $100, Nigeria feels impact
Middle East crude oil exports have rebounded to about 98% of pre-war levels, moving roughly 17.5 million barrels per day, according to a JPMorgan Chase note dated September 29 by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy. Refined product shipments lag at 3 million barrels per day, only 58% of pre-war volumes. Despite the flow recovery, Brent crude remains elevated, trading around $103 per barrel—about 40% above the $72.48 level seen before the US‑Iran conflict began on February 27. Nairametrics noted Brent peaked at $106 on September 24, with WTI near $94.
For Nigeria, the continued elevation in international crude prices keeps upward pressure on fuel costs even as the country refines more domestically. Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority data shows average daily petrol imports dropped 26% to 14.6 million litres in August 2026 from 19.7 million litres in July, a decline linked to rising output from the Dangote Refinery. On September 28, the Federal High Court in Abuja directed the regulator to keep issuing import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa, ensuring that imports remain part of the supply mix.
Because Nigeria still relies on imported refined products alongside local production, shifts in global oil prices can affect pump prices. Will you budget for higher transport costs, explore fuel‑efficient options, or advocate for faster expansion of domestic refining capacity to cushion against external price shocks?