Momodu predicts Atiku 2027 win via 25% state threshold strategy
African Democratic Congress chieftain Dele Momodu predicts Atiku Abubakar will win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election by securing at least 25% of votes in 26 states while dominating the North. Speaking on Nevon Media with Oseni Rufai Friday, Momodu explained this strategy meets the constitutional requirement for victory: highest total votes plus 25% in two-thirds of states. He believes Atiku can lock down high-voting northern states and compete effectively in the South to defeat both President Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi.
This prediction gains context from Tinubu's 2023 win with roughly 37% of the vote, built on a strong Southwest base and nationwide spread. Momodu argues Atiku's path hinges on clearing the 25% threshold across sufficient states—a metric Tinubu also met in 2023 but with different regional weighting. The ADC chieftain expressed optimism that Atiku's northern strength combined with Southern competitiveness creates an unbeatable electoral math.
With 2027 campaigning already unfolding, this framework highlights how opposition candidates might calculate pathways to victory against the incumbent. Understanding this constitutional threshold helps voters evaluate campaign strategies and viability claims as the election cycle intensifies.
Which Southern states do you think Atiku needs to target to make Momodu's 25%-in-26-states scenario plausible, and how might that reshape current political alliances?