Moody’s raises Nigeria’s outlook to positive, affirms B3 rating amid reforms
Moody's revised Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive while affirming the B3 rating, the Federal Ministry of Finance announced on Saturday, August 29, 2026. The move follows Moody's Friday announcement and cites improvements in Nigeria's external position, foreign exchange reserves, exchange-market functioning and monetary-policy transmission. Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele said the decision validates the administration's reforms, including fuel-subsidy removal, exchange-rate unification and tax reforms.
The positive outlook reflects stronger external buffers: foreign exchange reserves hit $53.11 billion on August 24, 2026—the first time above $53 billion in over 17 years and up $7.09 billion since January. Real GDP grew 3.89 percent year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by agriculture and services. These gains back the government's claim that reforms are stabilizing the economy and boosting investor confidence.
Moody's action aligns with other recent upgrades: S&P lifted Nigeria to B from B- in May 2026, Fitch affirmed B with a stable outlook, and FTSE Russell will reclassify Nigeria from 'Unclassified' to 'Frontier Market' effective September 21, 2026. Officials say the medium-term aim is investment-grade status, which will require faster progress on domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency and debt affordability. A positive outlook is not an immediate rating upgrade but signals room for improvement if the current trajectory continues.
With Nigeria's credit perception improving, will you expect lower borrowing costs for businesses and the government, or consider allocating more of your portfolio to Nigerian assets?