NGX gives back October gains as November sell-off reveals value in MTN, Access Bank

The Nigerian stock market rallied 2.86% in the final October week, pushing the All-Share Index to a 1.23% monthly gain and 63.42% year-to-date return, with market cap hitting N165.11 trillion. But the first week of November (ended Nov 6) erased more than October added: the index fell 2.13%, wiping N3.52 trillion and cutting the YTD gain to 59.93%. Selling was broad — 57 stocks fell, 29 rose.

September earnings now show which shares are genuinely cheaper versus just cheaper. MTN Nigeria is the clearest case: shares dropped from N850 to N837 while nine-month profit surged 55%. Buyers now pay about 12x earnings versus Airtel Africa's 23x. Among banks, Access Holdings fell from N30.40 to N26.90 with earnings per share flat at N8.02 — same earnings, lower price. Stanbic IBTC barely dipped and looks inexpensive. Cement's mixed: HBM Nigeria fell 10% to 15x earnings (vs Dangote's 18x, BUA's 19x) with nine-month profit up 31% but Q3 profit down 15%.

Power stocks tell the other side. Transcorp Power jumped 23% to N219.60 but trades at 21x earnings despite a 17% profit drop. Geregu Power sits at N825.70 — a staggering 257x earnings after a 77% profit collapse from transformer failures.

Selective buying looks more likely than a broad rebound. Watch where buyers return: in companies where earnings already support the price (MTN, Access), or in names betting on a recovery that hasn't arrived (Transcorp, Geregu). The September results give you the map — start with what the business earns, then ask how much better it needs to do for the price to make sense.

Will you buy the dip in stocks where earnings already justify the price, or wait for the broader market to show its hand?

SOURCE: https://nairametrics.com/2026/11/09/ngx-week-ahead-what-9m-2026-results-say-about-share-prices/