Nigeria business activity slows in October but stays in expansion, firms optimistic on festive demand
Nigeria's composite Business Performance Index fell to 115.4 points in October from 117.8 in September, the NESG Business Confidence Monitor shows. Activity remains in expansion territory (above 100) and beats October 2025's 111.3, but month-on-month momentum weakened as firms continue battling irregular power, limited credit access, high rental costs, insecurity and infrastructure gaps.
Trade and Services were the only sectors improving month-on-month. Trade surged to 136.1 from 128.5, driven by stronger retail activity. Services rose to 111.9 from 107.7, though Telecoms and Information Services slipped into contraction. Manufacturing dipped to 107.3 from 108.4, with only Food, Beverage & Tobacco improving among major subsectors. Agriculture slowed to 113.8 from 117.7, while Non-Manufacturing fell to 107.7 from 113.4, dragged by Oil & Gas Services staying in contraction.
Cost pressures eased slightly but remain severe: the cost index sits at 45.2 and producer prices at 65.5, both below the 100 neutral mark. Most key indicators—production, demand, investment, profit, employment—stayed in expansion but lost pace. Export sub-index moved into contraction.
Despite current softness, the Future Business Expectation Index jumped to 130.8 from 128.9, led by Trade (194.0) and Manufacturing (145.1). NESG links optimism to expected festive-season consumer spending and pre-election campaign outlays. CBN's PMI corroborates expansion, rising to 53.2 from 53.0.
If you run a business, the signal is clear: near-term conditions are tough but improving cost trends and a likely demand surge in December-March create a planning window. Will you use the next 60 days to secure inventory, negotiate credit lines, or lock in rental terms ahead of the expected demand spike?