Nigeria inflation seen rising to 15.3-15.9% in August amid food, fuel pressures
Analysts forecast Nigeria’s headline inflation to stay elevated in August, projecting a range of 15.3% to 15.94% year-on-year, compared with 15.43% recorded in July. The expected rise comes despite two months of disinflation and a slowdown in monthly price increases, with base‑year effects and persistent food and fuel costs limiting further relief. Food inflation remains the main pressure point, projected to edge up to around 20.5% YoY from 20.31% in July, while core inflation is seen easing to about 14.7%–15.0% YoY as the naira’s recent strength eases imported price pressures.
Experts cite the ongoing harvest season as a potential mitigating factor for food prices, but note that distribution challenges and high petrol and diesel prices continue to raise transportation, production and distribution costs, keeping overall inflation elevated. Some analysts, such as Damilare Asimiyu of FSDH Group, attribute the anticipated increase largely to the base effect, expecting month‑on‑month headline inflation to slow to 1.57% from 1.66% in July. Others, like Kehinde Jones of Anchoria Capital, see a modest decline to 15.3% and expect the disinflation trend to continue gradually through the year.
For households and businesses, the outlook means continued pressure on purchasing power and operating costs. Consumers may need to tighten budgets, while firms should monitor input costs and consider pricing strategies. The CBN’s monetary policy response will hinge on whether inflation trending downward sustains, influencing interest‑rate decisions and access to credit.