Nigeria leads small-scale solar growth in Africa but utility-scale lags
BloombergNEF's latest report shows Nigeria leads sub-Saharan Africa in small-scale solar growth, adding 3.1 GW of rooftop and battery systems in 2024-25 and forecasting cumulative capacity of 87 GW by 2035. The boom is driven by chronic grid failures and soaring fuel costs that push homes and businesses to replace diesel generators with solar-plus-storage. However, utility-scale renewable investment remains stagnant: only two grid-connected solar projects – the 70 MW Zungeru-linked plant and the 10 MW Kumbotso plant – were commissioned between 2020 and 2025, and the country lacks a clear auction or PPA framework to attract large private capital. In contrast, South Africa continues to dominate utility-scale renewables, projecting 4.67 GW of annual additions from 2025-2030, much of it driven by corporate power purchase agreements. The report warns that without reforms to Nigeria's electricity procurement system, the solar boom will stay off-grid, limiting its impact on national electricity supply.
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