Nigerian bank stocks show wildly different returns as retail investing surges to record highs

Retail investing in Nigerian stocks surged to record levels between January and May 2026, with participation up 138.76% year-on-year and ₦2.86 trillion in equities traded. This coincided with banks raising ₦3.37 trillion in fresh capital from March 2024 to March 2026 to strengthen their balance sheets after recapitalization.

Yet returns varied dramatically among the biggest banks. A ₦100,000 investment in First HoldCo at the start of 2026 would have grown to ₦269,000 (+169.3%) by August 26, while the same amount in UBA would be worth just ₦106,000 (+6.0%). Zenith Bank returned ₦193,200 (+93.2%), GTCO ₦140,700 (+40.7%), and Access Holdings ₦131,200 (+31.2%).

The performance gap stems from differing investor confidence in banks' dividend policies and earnings prospects. First HoldCo's surge followed its promise to pay at least 60% of post-tax profit as dividends after missing the 2025 payout, while UBA's weak return reflected its decision to skip the 2025 dividend due to regulatory provisions.

With such divergent outcomes among similarly recapitalized banks, would you chase yesterday's top performers or look for undervalued banks with strong fundamentals for better future gains?

SOURCE: https://techcabal.com/2026/08/28/what-100000-in-nigerias-biggest-bank-stocks-is-now-worth/