Nigerian crude hits $113/bbl as Naira strengthens to N1,344/$, boosting 2026 revenue outlook
Nigerian crude grades Brass River and Qua Iboe sold for $113.82 and $113.72 per barrel respectively as of 9:54 AM WAT Thursday, while Brent crude lagged at $96.54/bbl. Finance Minister Wale Edun confirmed Nigeria's oil production reached 1.8 million barrels daily, exceeding the 2026 benchmark price of $60/barrel set by government.
This surge comes as the Naira appreciated to approximately N1,344.20 per Dollar in Thursday's opening session, stabilizing near N1,344 after early trading showed N1,343.83. Analysts link this to improved foreign currency inflows from oil sales and CBN's forex backlog clearance.
Nigeria earned roughly N55.5 trillion from oil in 2025 (530.41 million barrels). With current prices nearly double the budget benchmark and production at 1.8M bpd, 2026 revenue will significantly exceed projections—creating fiscal space for vulnerable household support as Edun mentioned during IMF-World Bank meetings.
The price spike stems from Middle East war disruptions, with Iranian threats cutting global supplies via Strait of Hormuz, diverting Asian buyers like Japan to Nigerian crude. U.S. exports also surged to 5.2 million bpd (highest in 7 months) as traders seek alternatives.
Will this oil windfall translate to faster Naira stability, reduced fuel subsidy pressure, or accelerated infrastructure spending—or will revenue gains be absorbed by persistent forex demand and subsidy costs?