Nigeria's economy remains oil-dependent despite informal sector growth

Frank Nnamka argues Nigeria hasn't truly diversified despite oil being just 5% of GDP, because oil still made up 88% of export earnings in 2024. Most Nigerians work informally (farming, trading, services), but this broad informal economy isn't the same as producing sophisticated goods for global markets.

This matters because Nigeria ranks near bottom on economic complexity (score -1.6, ~150th), showing exports lack sophistication. While the 2023 naira float helped exporters, deeper issues remain: unreliable power, poor infrastructure, weak supply chains. Genuine non-oil exports are growing but only ~$6B yearly - too small to transform a 200M-person economy.

For businesses, real opportunity lies in specific firms that can overcome Nigeria's infrastructural gaps to produce tradable goods. Any plan must account for naira volatility since exports still drive dollar inflows.

Will you build export capacity by solving Nigeria's power, logistics, and supply chain challenges, or wait for broader changes that may not come without targeted fixes?

SOURCE: https://nairametrics.com/2026/09/16/nigerias-trillion-dollar-economy-has-a-complexity-problem/