Nigeria's MPC likely to hold rates steady ahead of 2027 elections
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at its current 26.5% as the country moves closer to the January 2027 general elections. Analysts on the Drinks and Mics podcast noted that only 100 basis points of cuts have been delivered so far in 2026, far below earlier expectations of 300‑500 basis points. Arnold Dublin‑Green of Renaissance Capital said external shocks, especially the Iran‑Israel conflict, have kept inflation high and pushed treasury bill yields up by roughly 100 basis points week‑on‑week, with recent bond auctions clearing above 18%. He argues the CBN can tighten through the capital market even if the policy rate stays flat. Tunji Andrews of Awabah expects at most another 50‑basis‑point cut before year‑end, while Chidozie Okonkwo of ZINNC thinks the MPC may avoid any further changes to avoid rocking the boat during election season. On oil, all three analysts are bullish if Brent stays below $80, citing ample global supply from Nigeria, Venezuela and a reopened Strait of Hormuz. For Nigerians, steady rates mean borrowing costs stay high, but rising treasury yields offer better returns on government securities. With elections looming, will you lock in higher yields on treasury bills now, or wait for a possible rate cut later in the year?