NUPRC: Nigeria lost 3.33M barrels to oil theft in 2025, 66% in Q4 alone
Nigeria recorded 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with 2.19 million barrels (66%) stolen in the fourth quarter alone, according to NUPRC's 2025 annual report released this week. The quarterly breakdown reveals a troubling spike: Q1 saw 896,471 barrels stolen, Q2 recorded a negative 200,400 barrels (reconciliation excess), Q3 had 440,434 barrels, then Q4 exploded to 2.19 million barrels.
Total production reached 541.08 million barrels of crude and blended condensate, plus 48.52 million barrels unblended condensate. Output stayed relatively stable quarter-to-quarter (132-137 million barrels), but theft concentration in Q4 suggests either worsening security or reporting changes.
On the development side, NUPRC approved 48 of 75 field development plans, targeting 1.75 billion barrels oil reserves, 104.48 million condensate barrels, and 8.19 trillion cubic feet gas. These projects could add 743,830 bpd oil, 23,707 bpd condensate, and 3.09 bscf/d gas between 2026-2030, with seven focused on non-associated gas.
The context is stark: FG's 2026 budget assumes 1.84 mbpd production at $64.85/barrel, but OPEC data shows Nigeria averaged only 1.505 mbpd since July 2026. Tony Elumelu claimed theft dropped from 97% to 2% of production under Tinubu, yet these NUPRC figures show millions of barrels still vanishing annually.
With production targets missed and theft persisting, the gap between budget assumptions and reality widens. Will new field developments come online fast enough to close the 335,000 bpd shortfall, or will theft continue undermining revenue projections?