Oil drops to $115 as US-Iran talks ease fears, but Hormuz attacks keep market on edge
Global oil prices fell Monday after hitting near six-month highs, with Brent crude dropping $1.60 to $115.10 per barrel and US WTI sliding $2.11 to $101.20. The decline follows a Friday rally that pushed Brent up 6% for the week and WTI up 2.3%, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities that heightened supply disruption fears.
For Nigeria, where oil revenue funds over half the federal budget, this volatility directly impacts the naira, government spending capacity, and ultimately pump prices. The dip comes as Qatari mediators visit Tehran and Mecca Pact nations (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan) prepare high-level talks with Iran—first since Houthi strikes became a major pressure point.
But the risk hasn't vanished. October has seen a record 28 vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with 11 hitting supertankers, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations data. Analyst John Evans of PVM Oil Associates says any price dips will find "grateful buyers" given the doubled jeopardy from Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure.
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, ongoing since February 28, continues to threaten shipping through both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits. Washington Institute data confirms October is the worst month for commercial shipping attacks since 2017.
With diplomatic progress fragile and physical attacks escalating, will the price hold or rally again—and how will the next move affect your budget, business costs, or investment decisions?