Political analyst Sowunmi predicts Tinubu-Atiku 2027 duel, sees Tinubu winning 22 states
Political analyst and former ADC ally Segun Sowunmi told Arise TV's Morning Show that Nigeria's 2027 presidential election will likely be a contest between President Bola Tinubu and former VP Atiku Abubakar. He predicted Tinubu would win approximately 22 states, with strong performance expected in the Southwest and improved showings in the Southeast and South South compared to past elections.
Here's the deal: Sowunmi forecast Tinubu would do significantly better in Northcentral and Northwest than in 2023, citing shifting alliances in Kano (where Ganduje lost to Shekarau with Dangote/BUA influence) and Katsina (where Isa Kenta defected to APC after Shema's departure). He noted the Northeast would require more effort from the VP and governors, while acknowledging potential weakness in certain northern areas where local power brokers remain influential.
With over a year until the election, how might these regional shifts—particularly the Northwest realignments and Northeast dynamics—actually translate to voter behavior and party strategies as campaigns intensify? Sowunmi's insider perspective offers a framework for monitoring key battlegrounds as the political landscape evolves.