Red Sea tensions draw African states into Gulf power rivalry
Ongoing US and Israeli offensives against Iran, coupled with Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, have intensified the rivalry between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, pulling African Red Sea states into a macro-conflict over ports, logistics, and security partnerships. Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Sudan are seeing competing Gulf investments in infrastructure, military training, and political patronage as each power seeks to expand its influence.
For Nigerians, this rivalry matters because disruptions to Red Sea trade routes affect global oil prices and shipping costs, directly impacting Nigeria’s import-dependent economy and the cost of living. The Nigerian diaspora working in Gulf states may face shifting loyalties as Abu Dhabi and Riyadh back opposing factions in neighboring conflicts. Nigeria’s own foreign policy could be pressured to align with one bloc, influencing access to Gulf investment, military cooperation, and diplomatic support on issues ranging from counter-terrorism to climate finance.
To navigate this, Nigeria should monitor Gulf-led infrastructure projects in the Horn, consider diversifying trade routes away from Red Sea chokepoints, and back African Union initiatives that coordinate a unified continental approach—channeling Gulf competition toward shared development rather than fragmented bilateral deals that deepen divisions. Will Nigeria benefit more from a coordinated AU stance on Gulf partnerships, or continue bilateral deals that risk fragmentation and limit its room to manoeuvre?