Rwanda threatens troop withdrawal from Mozambique over EU funding cuts
In March 2025, senior Rwandan officials threatened to withdraw over 4,000 troops from Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province if the European Union does not renew its funding beyond May. The EU has provided approximately $46 million since 2022, covering just under 17% of Rwanda’s deployment costs. These troops have been crucial in securing the gas-rich region, allowing TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil to resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects after years of insurgency-related suspension.
The stakes are high for Europe: Mozambique’s gas reserves could make it a top 10 global producer, supplying 20% of Africa’s output by 2040. This becomes critical as Ukraine war efforts reduce reliance on Russian gas and Qatari LNG exports dwindle due to Middle East conflicts. However, the EU faces a dilemma—funding the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) clashes with its sanctions against Rwanda for supporting the M23 rebellion in the DRC. The US imposed sanctions on the RDF in March 2025, citing institutional involvement in the conflict.
Rwanda’s deployment serves multiple goals: securing regional influence, enabling Rwandan-linked firms to access gas projects, and deflecting scrutiny from its DRC role. Yet, Mozambique’s own security forces remain weak, with poor logistics and abuse allegations, making them unable to fill the gap if Rwandan troops leave. The insurgency, which has killed over 6,500 since 2017, persists due to local grievances like political and economic exclusion.
For West Africa, this underscores how energy interests often override human security concerns. It also reveals the vulnerability of depending on foreign troops to protect critical infrastructure. Nigeria, with its own oil-rich Niger Delta and security challenges, should note that sustainable solutions require addressing local exclusion—not just military deployments. Will Nigeria prioritize inclusive development in resource regions to prevent similar instability, or rely on external security partnerships that may prove unpredictable?