S&P Global raises Nigeria 2026 inflation forecast to 16.9%, cuts growth outlook

S&P Global has lifted its forecast for Nigeria’s average inflation in 2026 to 16.9%, up from the earlier 15.0% estimate, while cutting the country’s GDP growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 by 30 basis points each to 3.7% and 3.5%. The rating agency says stronger‑than‑expected pass‑through of higher oil prices into domestic energy costs is driving the inflation upgrade, and it warns that food prices could rise further as transport and fertilizer costs climb.

The revision comes as Nigeria’s headline inflation already edged up to 15.93% in May 2026, according to Nairametrics, and global commodity gauges show upward pressure – the World Bank Energy Index rose to 146.4 points and the FAO Food Price Index climbed to 130.7 points, marking three straight monthly increases. S&P notes that higher consumer prices will likely weigh on household spending, a key driver of Nigeria’s economy, thus the lower growth forecasts.

For households and businesses, the takeaway is clear: budget for higher fuel and food costs, consider locking in prices where possible, and explore income‑boosting or cost‑saving measures to protect purchasing power as inflation stays elevated through 2026 and beyond.

SOURCE: https://nairametrics.com/2026/06/25/sp-global-raises-nigerias-2026-inflation-forecast-to-16-9/