World Bank projects Nigeria's fastest economic growth in over a decade
The World Bank forecasts Nigeria's economy will grow 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, marking its fastest expansion in more than a decade and up from 4.2% estimated for 2025. This upgrade in the 2026 Global Economic Prospects report signals strengthening momentum for Africa's largest economy.
The growth will be driven by expanding services sector—particularly finance and ICT—alongside rebounding agricultural output and modest non-oil industry growth. Economic reforms including tax system changes and continued prudent monetary policy are expected to support activity, improve investor sentiment, and further reduce inflation. Higher oil output should offset weaker global prices, boosting fiscal revenues and external balance.
Nigeria emerged as a net exporter of refined petroleum products in 2025, supported by increased domestic refining capacity. This development, combined with stronger services activity and gradual agricultural recovery, contrasted with slowdowns in Ethiopia and modest recovery in South Africa.
However, the World Bank warned that weak institutional frameworks have historically limited the effectiveness of fiscal reforms. While Nigeria introduced rules to reduce oil dependence and improve macroeconomic stability, outcomes remained mixed despite early progress. The bank stressed that strong institutions are crucial for sustaining these gains.
Sub-Saharan Africa's growth also improved to 4.0% in 2025 and is forecast to reach 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Regional growth faces risks from potential expiration of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in late 2025 and elevated debt-servicing costs, though the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could help cushion external shocks.
For Nigerian businesses and investors, this suggests improving conditions but highlights that institutional strength remains the critical variable for sustainable growth.